EVERY DATED CALL THIS BOARD HAS MADE, open and resolved, in one place. 77 total: 70 still open, 4 hit, 3 missed.
🔴 TOMORROW IS THE BUSIEST DAY THIS LEDGER HAS EVER HAD. THREE CALLS RESOLVE ON 31 AUGUST: a museum board votes on siting a national museum in a building it already owns; a generative platform switches its entire creator payment model to creator-set fees; and five million state-funded AI seats go live in one country. Two days after that, a prediction-market operator either has a working geofence in one American state or starts paying a hundred and twenty thousand dollars a day.
All four were filed in advance, with dates, and will be published hit or missed on those dates. That is the only thing that makes any of them worth having written down.
READ THE RECORD HONESTLY: four hits against three misses, and this desk has already struck one of those hits in public because the event had happened before the call was filed. On a board fifty-four days old the record is still too small to mean anything, and it is published anyway because a ledger you only show when it flatters you is not a ledger.
FOUR NEW CALLS TODAY, three of them on whether an eighteen-billion-dollar settlement's conditions are ever actually met.
MISSEDresolved 2026-08-12retired beat
Colorado announces ibogaine healing-centre site selections
I treated an EFFECTIVE date as a DELIVERY date. An effective date is when a permission starts to exist; a delivery date is when somebody is obliged to act. The statute created the first and contained nothing of the second, and I built a fourteen-day countdown on top of it. Score cut 91 to 74 the same day — the largest single-day cut this board has made.
MISSEDresolved 2026-08-12
A rights or estate announcement follows a catalogue artist's death within fifteen days
Fifteen days of institutional silence after the death of Kavinsky, and nothing surfaced. The finding was real — it points at estate infrastructure rather than grief — but the call was wrong. Stated limit at the time and it still stands: this was 'nothing surfaced in the one publication I could reliably read', NOT 'nothing happened'. Those are different claims.
MISSEDresolved 2026-08-20retired beat
Formal movement on the DOJ opinion targeting the peyote exemption
The date arrived and nothing came. I had been carrying an EVENT that was always a CONDITION — a memo that reached a task force in February and produced nothing by late August is not moving through a process, it is sitting. Called at transmission time rather than rolled forward, because 'the deadline has not quite passed' is how a dated call becomes an undated one.
HITresolved 2026-08-22retired beat
A fifth national football federation withdraws support from FIFA's president
Called on 2026-08-19 with the count at four and a deadline of 30 September. Resolved well inside it and far past five. Wales withdrew first, then Ireland, New Zealand, Scotland and England, joined by Serbia (3 August), Sweden, Montenegro and Israel. Hungary's Sandor Csanyi — one of eight FIFA vice-presidents and a FIFA Council member — withdrew by letter, calling the departure of COO Kevin Lamour the 'final straw' after Lamour publicly said staff were 'deceived' over the plan to sell a stake in World Cup commercial rights. Three confederations have attacked Infantino's conduct. THE METHOD IS WHAT SCORED, not the insight: a second instance was noticed on 14 August, the count was written down when there was no story, and it was carried daily. A single withdrawal is noise, two is coincidence, and the shape only exists if somebody tallies across days.
HITresolved 2026-08-25
Grayscale's Zcash trust begins trading on NYSE Arca as ZCSH
Called on 24 August on the strength of a filing naming 25 August. The Zcash ETF began trading on NYSE Arca under ZCSH on 25 August 2026.
HITresolved 2026-08-26retired beat
The corrected rescheduling hearing transcript is published
Called for 26 August. The full corrected transcript — 2,533 pages across eleven hearing days — was released on the date, after the presiding judge ordered 294 corrections on 20 August. Corrections marked in red, deletions struck through. The call was made on a retired beat and is resolved anyway: a dated call is a debt, not a topic.
HITresolved 2026-08-29
Anthropic's supply-chain-risk designation is lifted in the second decision
Resolved HIT, and this board is marking it as a FAILURE of its own process rather than a success. The ruling ordering the designation removed came down on Thursday evening, 27 August. This call was filed on Friday, 28 August, with a deadline ten months out — against an outcome that was already public. A prediction filed after the event is not a prediction. The cause was sourcing: the outlets carrying the second ruling would not answer this desk's fetcher, so the board saw the first decision, missed the second, and filed into the gap. Counted in the hit column because that is what the ledger says; discounted to zero in any honest reading of this board's record.
HITresolved 2026-09-01
The Smithsonian regents vote on 31 August to site the Latino museum in the Arts and Industries Building
MISSEDresolved 2026-09-01
Civitai's old creator compensation and tips system is actually off after 31 August 2026, with creator-set licensing fees live
The cutover was CANCELLED by the platform after creator objections, and the cancellation predates the call. This board filed the call on 30 August while already running the signal for a sixth day, having re-verified it each day by re-fetching the same URL — which still carried the original future-tense text under an out-of-date notice at the top that was never read. The call was wrong when it was written, not overtaken by events, and no gate here can detect a source superseded by a different document.
OPENresolves by 2026-09-06
'DAU' takes a prize at Venice, or is withdrawn before the awards
OPENresolves by 2026-09-09
Kalshi has a multi-source Washington geofence running, or a stay of the order
OPENresolves by 2026-09-12
'Possible Love' takes a major prize at Venice after Lee Chang-dong's eight-year absence
OPENresolves by 2026-09-13
'Ink' takes a prize at Venice
OPENresolves by 2026-09-13
'Meteorite' takes a prize at Venice Critics' Week
OPENresolves by 2026-09-15retired beat
A Colorado FY27 budget line or BHA grant announcement funds the ibogaine programme
OPENresolves by 2026-09-15
The 265-lot Comme des Garçons archive auction clears strongly
OPENresolves by 2026-09-15
X's Original Content Rewards launches on 8 September 2026 as announced, with the old revenue share ending 7 September
OPENresolves by 2026-09-19
Somebody other than the artist who coined it uses 'overground' in print
OPENresolves by 2026-09-28
Google ships a visible change to EU search results by the 21 September DMA deadline, or the Commission states publicly that it has not
OPENresolves by 2026-10-15
Pakistan publishes licensed crypto firms or enforcement actions after its 5 September deadline
OPENresolves by 2026-10-27
The SEC's Regulation Crypto Assets comment period closes on 20 October 2026 without extension
OPENresolves by 2026-10-31
amplified@rw names its four to six selected artists
OPENresolves by 2026-10-31
The FDA names a contractor for its social-listening programme
OPENresolves by 2026-10-31retired beat
A court rules on either Texas hemp TRO application
OPENresolves by 2026-10-31
A major fashion house cites heat adaptation in its show notes
OPENresolves by 2026-11-01retired beat
The Oregon psilocybin study is cited in a state legislative hearing or bill text
OPENresolves by 2026-11-03retired beat
Houston voters decide the marijuana deprioritisation ballot measure
OPENresolves by 2026-11-03retired beat
The follow-the-money prohibition line is picked up by candidates in other states
OPENresolves by 2026-11-30
Powerhouse Parramatta opens on 7 November 2026 with the announced five exhibitions
OPENresolves by 2026-11-30
A major museum holding Gao Brothers work makes a public statement about the sentence
OPENresolves by 2026-11-30
A style title publishes an explicit 'balletcore is over' piece
OPENresolves by 2026-11-30
A swipeless dating app publishes a retention number worth quoting
OPENresolves by 2026-12-31
The government appeals the retaliation ruling
OPENresolves by 2026-12-31
A token launch markets its vesting curve as a headline feature rather than burying it
OPENresolves by 2026-12-31
California and Paramount return to settlement talks, or the merger case is heard
OPENresolves by 2026-12-31retired beat
A final federal marijuana rescheduling decision is published
OPENresolves by 2026-12-31retired beat
Any formal DOJ, congressional or NAC action on the peyote exemption
OPENresolves by 2026-12-31
Veeze releases 'Worst Tape', promised in May 2026
OPENresolves by 2026-12-31retired beat
The accepted SXSW 2027 programme keeps a psychedelics-to-cannabis ratio above 2:1
OPENresolves by 2027-01-15
Off-White names no sole creative director and ships under the collaborative model through 2026
OPENresolves by 2027-02-01
YouTube's doubled Partner Program thresholds take effect on 1 February 2027 at the announced figures, unamended
OPENresolves by 2027-02-16retired beat
A federal constitutional challenge is filed against the odour-based search rule
OPENresolves by 2027-02-28
A Spanish or EU review of regional-museum security follows the Villena theft
OPENresolves by 2027-02-28
Thailand publishes an actual take-up figure for the TH-AI Passport's five million seats
OPENresolves by 2027-02-28
A second privacy-focused digital asset files for or receives a US exchange listing
OPENresolves by 2027-03-31
Another very large platform changes its default visibility for under-18 accounts
OPENresolves by 2027-03-31
A named customer design win or shipping system is announced around Quintessent's comb laser
OPENresolves by 2027-03-31
A US retailer sues an agentic browser on contract or trespass rather than under computer-crime law, or publicly blocks agents at the rendering layer
OPENresolves by 2027-03-31
The Flock federal-purchase bill gets a committee hearing
OPENresolves by 2027-03-31
A mainstream non-fashion retailer carries a house-brand clog or strap shoe
OPENresolves by 2027-03-31
A third year-round underground venue or relocated festival is announced in Sicily
OPENresolves by 2027-04-01
Denver's three-class entertainment code takes effect on 1 April 2027 with the licence classes unchanged in rulemaking
OPENresolves by 2027-06-30
A court vacates the Musical.ly consent decree, releasing TikTok's final $100m
OPENresolves by 2027-06-30
A second major label signs a comparable licensed fan-remix deal
OPENresolves by 2027-06-30
Regulation Crypto Assets clears its comment period without the offering exemption being narrowed
OPENresolves by 2027-06-30
The European Commission issues a non-compliance decision against TikTok on minors' defaults
OPENresolves by 2027-06-30
A New York artist-run or apartment gallery model is validated by a major museum or fair
OPENresolves by 2027-06-30
A DMCA anti-circumvention theory appears in an AI-training case outside music
OPENresolves by 2027-06-30
A second large generative platform replaces a platform-set revenue split with creator-set per-use licensing fees
OPENresolves by 2027-06-30
A major artist or label releases CD-first, or commissions the booklet as real design work
OPENresolves by 2027-06-30
A major museum or gallery adds a standing 'how this was made' field to its wall text
OPENresolves by 2027-08-31
TikTok and YouTube accept default one-hour limits and pay the states, unlocking Meta's final 30%
OPENresolves by 2027-08-31
Any part of the three stolen Villena crowns is recovered separately from the Bronze Age hoard
OPENresolves by 2027-08-31
A second stablecoin issuer takes a front-of-shirt sponsorship at a top-five European club
OPENresolves by 2027-08-31
Wispr ships a product beyond dictation
OPENresolves by 2027-08-31
A first public enforcement action is brought under EU AI Act Article 50
OPENresolves by 2027-08-31
Any part of the Villena Treasure is recovered
OPENresolves by 2027-08-31
Cozzmic Sonic Records releases a second record
OPENresolves by 2027-08-31
A second national government buys bulk frontier-model access with no-training terms attached
OPENresolves by 2027-08-31
Gao Zhen's three-year sentence is reduced, overturned or served in full on appeal
OPENresolves by 2027-08-31
Uber's €825m GDPR fine is reduced on appeal
OPENresolves by 2027-08-31
One of the 'newly arriving' menswear brands enters a major department store's main buy or a mass collaboration
OPENresolves by 2027-09-15
Visa pour l'Image announces a director or leadership structure for the 39th edition before the 2027 festival opens
OPENresolves by 2027-10-31
A film about building maintenance rather than architects screens outside the architecture circuit
OPENresolves by 2027-12-02
The high-risk AI Act deadlines are postponed again beyond December 2027
OPENresolves by 2027-12-31
A contractor other than Anthropic cites the Fifth Amendment pre-deprivation holding against a designation
OPENresolves by 2027-12-31
A frontier lab cites this ruling in a dispute over its own usage policy
OPENresolves by 2027-12-31
A fourth Shigeru Ban building is announced for Pasona on Awaji Island
OPENresolves by 2027-12-31
A major sportswear brand ships an in-house de-logoed flagship silhouette, no collaborator
OPENresolves by 2027-12-31
A non-toy consumer electronics product is marketed on an explicit no-AI claim
OPENresolves by 2027-12-31
Regulation Crypto Assets is adopted in final form with a fundraising exemption
OPENresolves by 2028-02-29
A second acoustic-mechanical instrument ships from a major manufacturer
OPENresolves by 2028-08-31
A default time limit for under-18s appears in a statute rather than a settlement